100 Mile Run Survey Results

The following is a summary of the 100 mile run survey taken Oct. 22-31 1996 among people who have attempted or completed at least one 100 mile run. A copy may be found at http://he.net/~mmahoney/ultra/table.txt. I took the survey hoping to collaborate an earlier study of Leadville participants showing no relationship between training mileage and finishing (which I did, though more training leads to faster times among those who do finish) and a strong correlation between 10K time and finishing. In the second case, I got a surprising result: a 39 minute 10K, no more, no less, gives you the best chance of finishing and the fastest 100 mile time.

Ages range from 26 to 67, and 95% are men. If you are a typical respondant, you are 44 years old, began running 16 years ago at age 28, ran your first ultra 6 years ago at age 38, and attempted your first 100 mile run early last year. You ran your best 10K of 38:04 (range 31:30 to 59:45) 8 years ago at age 36. This is quite fast, in the top 5-10% of most 10K races. You have attempted 3.38 100 mile races, finishing 66% of the time, in 27:32. Your median DNF is 61 miles. On your first attempt you did better, finishing 69% of the time with a 25:50 or 68 miles. You train an average of 50 miles/week, and this varies little over periods of several years.

Of 186 races, 96% are trail runs. The top 5 are listed below, with total number and percent of responses, number and percent of those that resulted in finishing, and median time among finishers. Note that the finish rate is slightly higher than found in race results, reflecting some bias in the survey. (Successful ultrarunners are more likely to respond).

  Race            Total starts  Finish   Median   Cutoff
  Leadville           40  22%   23  57%   28:32   30:00
  Western States      28  15%   19  68%   26:18   30:00
  Arkansas Traveller  23  12%   18  78%   26:30   30:00
  Vermont             17   9%   14  82%   22:14   30:00
  Hardrock            16   9%    9  56%   46:30   48:00

For your first 100 attempt, the top 5 are:

  Western States      19  22%
  Vermont              7  14%
  Leadville            6  12%
  Arkansas Traveller   5  10%
  All road courses     5  10%

Of the 186 races you ran, these were in the following years:

  Before 1980: 1 (1%)
  1980-89: 33 (18%)
  1990: 3  (2%)
  1991: 11 (6%)
  1992: 14 (8%)
  1993: 14 (8%)
  1994: 21 (11%)
  1995: 30 (16%)
  1996: 52 (28%)

There is little correlation between finishing a 100 mile race and the number of miles you ran in the preceeding 6 months, though training will make you faster if you do finish. Finishing rate is 69% (9% under 24 hours) for those training less than 50 miles/week, and 66% (31% under 24 hours) for those training more. Breaking it down further:

Mi/wk  Finishes/Starts Under 24:00
0-19   7/11    64%      2  18%
20-29  15/21   71%      1   5%
30-39  10/16   62%      2  12%
40-49  21/29   72%      2   7%
50-59  20/33   61%      9  27%
60-69  22/32   69%     12  37%
70-79  13/21   62%      7  33%
80-90  10/13   77%      1   8%

Oddly, your chances of finishing and running a good time for 100 miles are best if your 10K is around 39 minutes, neither faster nor slower. This group is also the most experienced, starting an average 5.6 100 milers each.

Best 10K     Number Finishes/Starts Under 24:00 Starts/person
Under 35:00    11    11/19   58%      3   16%    1.7
35:00-37:59    14    28/39   72%      9   23%    2.8
38:00-40:59    11    50/62   81%     17   27%    5.6
41:00-44:59     9    19/30   63%      2    7%    3.3
45:00 & over    6    12/29   41%      1    6%    4.8
Total          51   120/178  67%     32   18%    3.5

Below is the data in tabular format. The raw data from which this table was constructed (minus names) is here (in the same order). It includes the reasons for DNF's, such as injury, exhaustion, cutoff, not enough training, etc. Also, a few people ran longer races that are not included here, such as the Spartathlon, Eco Challenge, etc.

BI = Year of birth
S  = Sex
RN = Year started running
UL = Year started running ultras
10K = Best 10K time (omitting seconds if approximate)
YR = Year of best 10K
RA = Race name:
  AC = Angeles Crest
  AT = Arkansas Traveller
  BM = Barkley
  EA = Eagle (Canada)
  HB = Haliburton (Canada)
  HR = Hardrock
  KM = Kettle Moraine
  LT = Leadville
  MM = Massenutten Mountain
  MO = Mohican
  OD = Old Dominion
  PN = Pueblo Nuevo
  RD = Any road course
  RR = Rocky Raccoon
  SS = Superior Snowshoe
  ST = Superior Trail
  TR = Track, 100 mile split in a 24 hour race
  UM = Umstead
  VT = Vermont
  WA = Washie (South Africa)
  WS = Western States
  WT = Wasatch
YR = Year of race
TIME = Hours and minutes, or miles for DNF
TR = Weekly training mileage 6 months prior to 100 mile race
NOTES = Includes cross training or summaries not included in the
  above statistics

BI S RN UL 10K  YR RA YR TIME TR NOTES
-- - -- -- ---- -- ---- -- -- -- -----
58 M 83 86 3540 86 LT 88 2838 55
                   WS 89   62 50
50 M 83 88 45   84 WS 93 2724 50
                   WS 95 2756 55
47 M 69 75 3428 73 RD 7? 2350
                   RD 8?   65
                   HB 96   75  0
70 M 91 93 3700 92 MO 95   68 35 +swim 3:30, stairs 3:30
                   AT 95 2113 50 "
                   MO 96 2146 62 "
                   LT 96   60 62 "
                   AC 96 2802 65 "
59 M 77 96 4004 96 VT 96 2248 70
51 M 82 94 3621 87 MO    2742 60
55 M 76 92 3405 88 VT      78 60
42 M 67 93 4620 93 LT 96   50 30 +walk 20
64 M 88 91 3315 94 WS 94 2540 90
                   AT 94   70 90
                   AT 95 2138 90
                   BM 96   20 90
                   AT 96 1835 70
68 M 77 79 3939 78 RR 96 2131 11 +walk 14
                   KM 96 2646 18 +walk 17
                   AC 96 2812 16 +walk 16
52 M 72 94 3658 92 WS 95 2618 40
                   LT 96 2839 45
54 F 92 93 4430 95 LT 93 2952 50
                   LT 94 2815 50
                   LT 95  DNF 50
                   LT 96  DNF 50
52 M 89 93 4418 92 AC 95 3024 33
                   RR 96   40 30
                   WS 96 2846 36
64 M 91 93 3818 95 AT 96 2509 20 +swim, bike 40
55 M 95 95 34      WS 96   55 50
57 M 73 93 3812 86 LT 93 2755 80
                   LT 94 2642 85
                   WS 94 2908 90
                   LT 95 2706 90
                   LT 96 2852 75
                   HR 96 4630 80
58 F 86 89 4137 95 WT 95 2642 65? 9.5 hr run, 2.5 wts, 1.25 other
52 M 89 93 3855 93 UM 95   75 40
66 M 92 95 3655 95 VT 96 2559 43
66 M 85 90 3559 92 VT 92 1726 50
                   AT 94 2027 55
                   AC 95 2310 67
                   WS 96 2257 52
54 M 78 90 3230 80 EA 96   91 82
63 F 83 89 52   86 TR 94 2310 60
                   LT 94 2910 65
                   WS 95  DNF 70
                   PN 96 2853 70
                   LT 96 2946 72
45 M 78 81 39   82 OD    2306 50 best of 4, 85-88
                   WS 89   70
                   WS 92 29?? 40
                   VT    2230    best of 2, 89-90
                   AC    3039 35 best of 2, 94, 96
49 M 61 71 3603 71 AT 96   75 40
58 M 78 95 3410 95 WS    2220 60
32 M 69 71 35                 70 finish 3 of 7 + 101/24 hr
55 M 83 93 42   96 VT 96 2154 30
53 M 77 94 4030 79 LT 94   50 35
                   LT 95   62 35
                   RR 96 2800 30
                   LT 96   70 40 +bike 100-150 once/wk
58 M 68 95 3130 80 TR 95 1620 70 +25 hr other
                   SS 96 9600 60 +20, snowshoe race
?? M 65 81 3200 82 WS 96 2944 25 +cross training
48 M 80 79 36      RD 85   69 55 infrequent running before 1980
                   OD 87   76 55
                   LT 81   83 55
                   OD 88   84 60
                   VT 93 1954 60
                   MM 95 2829 60
                   AC 96 2836 40
48 M ?? 93 5945 93 AT 95 2826 35
52 M 83 90 41   91 WS 93 2816 55
                   LT 94 2848 40
                   WT 95 3229 52
                   HR 96   57 45
46 M 70 84 3505 84 HR 92 3719 40
                   HR 93 3236 60
                   LT 93 2412 65
                   HR 94   61 50
38 M 81 85 4444 85 LT 87 2924 25 +other
                   LT 89 2812 25 "
                   WS 91 2900 25 "
                   LT 91 2745 25 "
                   ST 91   90 25 "
                   HR 92 4715 25 "
                   LT 92   70 25 "
                   ST 92 3230 25 "
                   HR 93 46?? 25 "
                   HR 94 4730 25 "
                   WT 95   68 25 "
                   HR 96   58 25 "
                   LT 96    3 25 "
43 M 75 83 3715 84 RD 95 2645 40
                   VT 96   54 40
30 M 77 80 4615 81 WS 84   47 65
                   LT 84   50 60
                   LT 85   50 65
                   LT 86   50 70
                   AC 87   80 50
                   WS 88   56 70
                   WS 89   56 70
                   LT 89 2834 80
                   VT 91 2815 60
                   LT 91   50 70
                   WT 91   65 70
                   AT 91 2743 70
                   LT 92   50 70
                   WT 92   40 70
                   AT 92 2935 70
                   AT 94   17 65
                   HR 95   28 65
                   MM 96   35 60
                   HR 96   16 55
29 M 70 80 4400 81 TR 93 2313 20
43 M 80 86 3858 85 WS 84  DNF 40
                   OD 87 2926 40
                   LT 88 2832 50
                   WT 89 3401 30
                   OD 90  DNF 30
                   WS 91 2732 40
                   AT 91 2725 40
                   HR 92  DNF 40
                   AT 92 26?? 40
                   HR 93 4219 40
                   AT 93 2458 40
                   HR 94 4648 40
                   AT 94 26?? 40
                   AT 95 2615 40
                   HR 96   81 15
                   AT 96 2818 20
61 M 92 92 34   92 WA 96 2112 25
41 M 87 91 4210 89 WS 95   93 45
                   VT 96 2645 40
45 M 85 89 3840 88 VT 95 2101 50
37 F 80 86 4158 84 RD 88 1910 60 over 100 in 9/13 24 hrs
                   RD 89   37 60
51 M 77 81 38   82 WS 82 2129 60
                   WS 84 2003 70
                   WS 87 2103 60
                   OD 88 2001 55
                   LT 88 2440 55
                   LT 90 2240 65
                   WS 91 2000 75
                   VT 92 1754 70
                   WS 93 2245 60
                   LT 93 2230 65
                   VT 94 1845 65
                   AC 95 2340 55
                   LT 95 2420 55
                   WS 96 2054 75
                   HR 96 3454 75
51 ? 89 94 4545 95 AT 95 2714 37
                   AT 96 283? 37
55 M 85 90 3855 96 RD 93   68 15 +10 walk, 60 bike, .5 swim, wts
                   LT 94   52 15 "
                   AT 94   70 15 "
                   VT 95 2753 15 "
                   LT 95 2949 15 "
                   AT 95 2853 15 "
                   LT 96 2947 15 "
?? M 92 93         AT 96   63 57
54 M 81 86 3450 87 KM 96 2530 60
65 M 78 91 3215 87 VT 94 2708 50
                   VT 95   80 50
48 M 77 83 3618 81 OD 86   56 50
                   OD 87 2248 35
                   WT 89 3204 26
                   WT 90 2909 21
                   AC 91 2740 23
                   WT 92   40 23
                   AT 96 2645 22
57 M 89 91 4030 93 AC 94 3215 85
                   AC 96 3122 85
50 M 85 89 3605 89 MO 92 2057 48
                   VT 94 2157 51
                   HB 96 1928 47
Matt Mahoney matmahoney@aol.com